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Under current nationally determined contributions (NDCs) to mitigate greenhouse gas emissions, global warming is projected to reach 2.7°C above preindustrial levels. In this review, we show that at such a level of warming, the Arctic would be transformed beyond contemporary recognition: Virtually every day of the year would have air temperatures higher than preindustrial extremes, the Arctic Ocean would be essentially ice free for several months in summer, the area of Greenland that reaches melting temperatures for at least a month would roughly quadruple, and the area of permafrost would be roughly half of what it was in preindustrial times. These geophysical changes go along with widespread ecosystem disruptions and infrastructure damage, which, as we show here, could be substantially reduced by increased efforts to limit global warming. 

Abstract. Our understanding of how rapid Arctic warming and permafrost thaw affect global climate dynamics is restricted by limited spatio-temporal data coverage due to logistical challenges and the complex landscape of Arctic regions. It is therefore crucial to make best use of the available observations, including the integrated data analysis across disciplines and observational platforms. To alleviate the data compilation process for syntheses, cross-scale analyses, earth system models, and remote sensing applications, we introduce ARGO, a new meta-dataset comprised of greenhouse gas observations from various observational platforms across the Arctic and boreal biomes within the polar region of the northern hemisphere. ARGO provides a centralised repository for metadata on carbon dioxide (CO2), methane (CH4), and nitrous oxide (N2O) measurements linked with an interactive online tool (https://www.bgc-jena.mpg.de/argo/). This tool offers prompt metadata visualisation for the research community. Here, we present the structure and features of ARGO, underscoring its role as a valuable resource for advancing Arctic climate research and guiding synthesis efforts in the face of rapid environmental change in northern regions. The ARGO meta-dataset is openly available for download at Zenodo (https://doi.org/10.5281/zenodo.13870390) (Vogt et al., 2024). 

Abstract The permafrost active layer is a key supplier of soil organic carbon and mineral nutrients to Arctic rivers. In the active layer, sites of soil-water exchange are locations for organic carbon and nutrient mobilization. Previously these sites were considered as connected during summer months and isolated during winter months. Whether soil pore waters in active layer soils are connected during shoulder seasons is poorly understood. In this study, exceptionally heavy silicon isotope compositions in soil pore waters show that during late winter, there is no connection between isolated pockets of soil pore water in soils with a shallow active layer. However, lighter silicon isotope compositions in soil pore waters reveal that soils are biogeochemically connected for longer than previously considered in soils with a deeper active layer. We show that an additional 21% of the 0–1 m soil organic carbon stock is exposed to soil - water exchange. This marks a hot moment during a dormant season, and an engine for organic carbon transport from active layer soils. Our findings mark the starting point to locate earlier pathways for biogeochemical connectivity, which need to be urgently monitored to quantify the seasonal flux of organic carbon released from permafrost soils. 

Abstract. Permafrost ecosystems are limited in nutrients forvegetation development and constrain the biological activity to the activelayer. Upon Arctic warming, permafrost thaw exposes large amounts of soilorganic carbon (SOC) to decomposition and minerals to weathering but alsoreleases organic and mineral soil material that may directly influence thesoil exchange properties (cation exchange capacity, CEC, and base saturation,BS). The soil exchange properties are key for nutrient base cation supply(Ca2+, K+, Mg2+, and Na+) for vegetation growth anddevelopment. In this study, we investigate the distributions of soil exchangeproperties within Arctic tundra permafrost soils at Eight Mile Lake(Interior Alaska, USA) because they will dictate the potential reservoir ofnewly thawed nutrients and thereby influence soil biological activity andvegetation nutrient sources. Our results highlight much lower CEC density insurface horizons (∼9400 cmolc m−3) than in the mineralhorizons of the active layer (∼16 000 cmolc m−3)or in permafrost soil horizons (∼12 000 cmolc m−3). Together, with the overall increase in CEC density with depth andthe overall increase in BS (percentage of CEC occupied by exchangeable basecations Ca2+, K+, Mg2+, and Na+) with depth (from∼19 % in organic surface horizons to 62 % in permafrost soilhorizons), the total exchangeable base cation density (Ca2+, K+,Mg2+, and Na+ in g m−3) is up to 5 times higher in thepermafrost than in the active layer. More specifically, the exchangeablebase cation density in the 20 cm upper part of permafrost about to thaw is∼850 g m−3 for Caexch, 45 g m−3 forKexch, 200 g m−3 for Mgexch, and 150 g m−3 forNaexch. This estimate is needed for future ecosystem prediction modelsto provide constraints on the size of the reservoir in exchangeablenutrients (Ca, K, Mg, and Na) about to thaw. All data described in this paper are stored in Dataverse, the online repository of Université catholique de Louvain, and are accessible through the following DOI: https://doi.org/10.14428/DVN/FQVMEP (Mauclet et al., 2022b). 

Abstract The Arctic–Boreal Zone is rapidly warming, impacting its large soil carbon stocks. Here we use a new compilation of terrestrial ecosystem CO₂fluxes, geospatial datasets and random forest models to show that although the Arctic–Boreal Zone was overall an increasing terrestrial CO₂sink from 2001 to 2020 (mean ± standard deviation in net ecosystem exchange, −548 ± 140 Tg C yr⁻¹; trend, −14 Tg C yr⁻¹;P < 0.001), more than 30% of the region was a net CO₂source. Tundra regions may have already started to function on average as CO₂sources, demonstrating a shift in carbon dynamics. When fire emissions are factored in, the increasing Arctic–Boreal Zone sink is no longer statistically significant (budget, −319 ± 140 Tg C yr⁻¹; trend, −9 Tg C yr⁻¹), and the permafrost region becomes CO₂neutral (budget, −24 ± 123 Tg C yr⁻¹; trend, −3 Tg C yr⁻¹), underscoring the importance of fire in this region. 

Abstract Tundra and boreal ecosystems encompass the northern circumpolar permafrost region and are experiencing rapid environmental change with important implications for the global carbon (C) budget. We analysed multi-decadal time series containing 302 annual estimates of carbon dioxide (CO₂) flux across 70 permafrost and non-permafrost ecosystems, and 672 estimates of summer CO₂flux across 181 ecosystems. We find an increase in the annual CO₂sink across non-permafrost ecosystems but not permafrost ecosystems, despite similar increases in summer uptake. Thus, recent non-growing-season CO₂losses have substantially impacted the CO₂balance of permafrost ecosystems. Furthermore, analysis of interannual variability reveals warmer summers amplify the C cycle (increase productivity and respiration) at putatively nitrogen-limited sites and at sites less reliant on summer precipitation for water use. Our findings suggest that water and nutrient availability will be important predictors of the C-cycle response of these ecosystems to future warming.